STATE OPEN HEAVY RANKINGS

Weiner beat Minsok 8-3 at SCCs

@interestedfellow It looks like you and SangSoo1010 are the same guy--making the exact same comment within a couple of minutes. :-) I wasn't taking anything away from Lee, in fact, if you read my comment it says he was amazing--unbeatable. He fed off the crowd and it was a nice boost for him--nothing wrong with that. I certainly wasn't implying "home cooking" in the refereeing--just a home gym advantage with fan support. Well done Lee!! In wrestling we often say someone was the best wrestler that day--calling Lee's performance "dominance" is a bit overstated. He was up 2 points in both matches fighting off takedowns to stall out the match for the last minute (in both matches). He did so successfully and both Weiner and Clay shot for do-or-die takedowns in the last 20 seconds left which gave Lee the opportunity to sprall and score turning a hard-fought 2 point win into a last-second 4 point win. I was there, and saw/filmed both matches. Lee was very good, but I doubt he would claim "dominance" after either of those two matches--they could have gone either way, but as they say, "on that day Lee was the best 285 wrestler there." Heavyweight matches won by decision (don't end in a fall) are not usually characterized as "dominant." Either way, I am a big supporter of Lee (have been since watching him hit perfect ankle picks 2 years ago) and if you see my other comments, I advocated for him being the #1 Open HWT after his victories over Houston.

@Innocent Bystander i completely agree with you for the most part except for one thing: I would say winning by points in any heavyweight match says more than a simple pin. The best Heavyweights can easily be put on their backs after a failed move simply because of the body weight helping gravity. If you win by points, it shows they were able to last three periods with the best heavyweights in the state. But all in all, I definitely agree Lee had a successful day.

@interested_fellow Wrestling rewards a pin fall with the most points in both a tournament and dual. The rules and scoring of wrestling say that holding an opponent on their back is the ultimate goal and most dominant position. I agree that heavyweights are more likely to get "caught" and suffer a fall. I think Lee is an outstanding wrestler who has successfully won many matches by both fall and decision. Winning by pin fall is harder to achieve as the competition gets better--we see far fewer falls in the NCAA tournament than in high school, for example. I agree that surviving three periods as a HWT is an achievement--but that is only mitigating for the loser of the match. My guess is that if you asked Lee whether he would rather pin Weiner/Clay or win by decision, he would emphatically choose the win by fall. Regardless, Lee is someone to watch, he can beat anybody, and on that day, he was the best 285 there. Beating either of those two by 1 point is a great accomplishment.

From a purely scientific standpoint, when you develop a predictive outcome model for wrestling, you quickly find that there is a big difference between a pin and a decision in terms of its impact on win/loss predictors. Winning by a point is barely predictive, winning by pin fall is highly predictive (several times more impact on likelihood factor). As an example (purely hypothetical nonsense), suppose the ex ante prediction for Lee vs. Weiner was that Lee had a 45% chance of victory (he was the underdog). After winning by decision, the win prediction for the next match would have jumped to (say) a little over 50%, a pin would have pushed him to over 60%. The impact of each victory becomes smaller the more matches in the book, but you get the idea. Much like ESPN football win predictions, it is only a model and is therefore fallible, but it is better than armchair analysis.

@Innocent Bystander yes it was Nick Dejesus not Quinn. The results of that day are all messed up. One of the Middletown matches from that day says Eli Cyr wrestled lol. if I remember correctly Matt went to Matt return Nick and he slipped and fell to his back and Nick just jumped on him.

@sweep the leg! The result surprised me, I would have picked Matt, but that's how the heavies go. Having 285lbs. pancaked on your back will gas the toughest of us. Nick DeJesus also has a pinfall victory over Rizy at the Warde Invitational 1/4, so I guess he's been tough--he lost to Weiner in a close one 1-0.

So, Cyr isn't back as a 285? :-)

@Innocent Bystander exactly to your point from earlier about getting caught under a heavy guy lol. And Cyr wearing a fat guy suit lol😂

Ryan recently beat McIver (Ledyard) which was a great win. Flo and ctwrestling.com both have a result for 1/10 M. Ryan losing to Quinn of Middletown (a 113lb wrestler). That's got to be a typo :-), was it Nick DeJesus? https://arena.flowrestling.org/event/c982451e-f729-fd1a-1efd-9916afd6a744

@Innocent Bystander I’m gonna have to look into that one. Give me a few min.

I think Weiner will win that one, too. I also think Houston won't beat Agosto or Rizy, but with HWTs, it's easy to get caught under a heavy guy.

@Innocent Bystander yep , that’s for sure 😂

That doesn't really work, though, does it? If you use your head-to-head logic, Houston starts at #1 having won Opens, but he's been beaten twice by Lee of Branford who was pinned by Perry of H-K, so if you go with head-to-head, it's

Perry,

Lee,

Houston,

Agosto,

Weiner

Rizy

I thought your whole argument was based on using current year results, not who-beat-whom at last year's open. I agree this won't stand for the season, but at least it is logically consistent whereas you want to use this year's Class LL but help out the LL boys with Last year's Open (only if it helps them, though) and ignore this year's head-to-head (since it hurts the LL boys).

@scott I answered this question below. Weiner won by a pin!

Wow! Thank you for the information. It will be a fun weight to watch at Opens.

@scott no problem, and I agree.