My early season assesment from this weeks action - Not a ton of results to work off of just yet, but heres where i'm at. Enjoy and share some thoughts!
1. Danbury is the team to beat this year, but they are a bit more vonerable then many may have thought. They are solid from top to bottom, if you are going to beat them in a dual, you have to limit bonus point wins were they are strong. I think Warde/Danbury is a real thing this year and will be a very exciting dual. DHS is deep in the middle wieghts, allowing them to move their line up around to macth up better with other top teams. Shook and Co. are going to need to play their cards right to stay at the top.
2. Warde is the #2 team in the state, both dual and tournament. They have the studs to match Simsbury who i have sitting at #3 but more more depth in the line up.
3. Staples is a very solid dual team, they are getting maximum results from a young and green team. They are hands down a top 5 dual team, not quiet there in the tournament scene yet, but i would still have them in the top 8, just not ready to break into the top 5.
4. 5-10 teams in tournaments/duals is a crapshoot, Good luck ranking these spots as a i see it changing week to week. I just do not see any real depth on most teams, seems to me that these lower top 10 teams have a few studs, and a major fall of in talent after that.
My top 5 Dual Team Currently:
Danbury,Warde,Xavier, Simsbury, Staples
My Top 5 Tournament Team Currenty:
Danbury, Warde, Simsbury, Xavier, Southington
Good analysis @Run.the.Pipes . Danbury remains team to beat but Warde has closed the gap. Bristol Eastern still dangerous as is Foran, Manchester, HK & Southington. Once weight allowance kicks in will be able to get a better sense on tournament teams.
I think Danbury is the clear #1, but I think Simsbury is #2 followed by Warde and Xavier for both dual and tourney teams. Simsbury only brought 11 of 14 weight classes to Lowell and only finished 5 points behind Warde in pts who brought all weight classes. Simsbury is at Danbury on Feb 1st for a quad dual. We can see how far or close Simsbury is to them. Bergin leaving for NY and Oken out with an injury certainly hurts the depth at 2 different weight classes.
I think Simsbury is more of a threat to the Hatters at Opens than they are for the Feb, 1 dual. Their line up just doesnt match up well with the Danbury IMO.. Simsbury will also get a shot at Timberlane that day, nice test for Coach Silva and the Trojans. I said it last season, Silva is doing all the right things in order to build a sustainable program.
@Run.the.Pipes I agree with your assessment - Simsbury's lineup doesn't match-up well in a dual meet to Danbury (e.g., 113, 120, 126, etc). To compete with Danbury in a dual, teams need to limit the damage down low, then score well in the 152 to 195 classes - as Timberline did last year, beating Danbury 45-14. The only plausible approach is to play a chess game by Simsbury moving wrestlers around to avoid Jack (Mairano to 145, Sera to 152, Oken (if back) to 160, Sirois to 170). The key would be the coin flip at the beginning...or else Danbury would move Jack up to 145 with Mairano, thus avoiding the full advantage of moving up wrestlers.
In terms of Warde & Simsbury, they both attend the Xavier tournament in a few weeks. This will be another good tournament measuring stick between these three top teams.
@stallwarning I think your spot on. The coin flip is going to mean a lot in this dual, I would think both teams do not want to present first at 138. Something that catches my eye is that both the Simsbury & Danbury top guys have been training together at Empire all summer, I’m not sure if it means much but familiarity could add an interesting twist to this dual.
I am following both teams closely and will definitely do dual break down in anticipation for the match. I’m thinking one breakdown of each line up head to head, and another with anticipated bumping from each team.
If anyone is in CT and not competing on February 1st, the place to be is Danbury High Shcool. Timberlane, Simsbury and Danbury, it doesn't get much better than that for CT wrestling.
Adding onto your Danbury analysis, is this year the end of an era? What I mean is looking at the 106/103 pound results over the past decade+, Danbury has dominated this weight class consistently, feeding into their overall dominance in their lineup for years after (usually the 106 lbs weight class is filled by freshman/sophomores, which then fill higher weight classes in proceeding years). For example, R. Jack started out as a 106 lbs wrestler as a freshman, then went to 120 lbs his sophomore year, then 126 his junior year. Their current lineup has three excellent wrestlers who were at one point 106 lbs (O'Dell, Johnson, & R. Jack).
Year - Wrestler - Open Place - LL Place
2019 - O'Dell - 5th - 2nd
2018 - Johnson - 6th - 3rd
2017 - R. Jack - 1st - 1st
2016 - LeBlanc - N/A - 2nd
2015 - Camacho - 2nd - 2nd
2014 - Freitas - 1st - 1st
2013 - Freitas - 2nd - 3rd
2012 - K. Jack - 1st - 1st
2011 - K. Jack - 5th - 4th
2010 - Bryant - 4th - 2nd
2009 - Bryant - 4th - 3rd
2008 - Jennings - N/A - 3rd
Will Shook & Co. find a 106 lbs wrestler this year? Could someone drop down after the 2 lbs allowance?
there is no doubt that this will be a down year for Danbury at 106, I’d say the first in about 20 years they will not qualify the weight for opens. I don‘t find it to be to alarming though, their current 106 is just too small at this time, he is most likely going to be at 6 for a number of years to come and should pan out fine. that’s if he can get into the line up in the future. Danbury has a very solid 8th grade class that will make an immediate impact next year.
Solid weekend for Warde,Simsbury, and Danbury. Warde cleaned up a very watered down field at their invitational. , simsbury wrestled tough in NJ, there sub par down in the lower weights, really solid 132-52 and tough at 220/HWt. 160-195 will make or break this team. I think I like Simsbury over Warde at this time. They have more depth than i thought coming into the season. looking ahead I think Danbury matches up better with Warde than simsbury. Danbury can really move their line up around to put warde in a pinch. simsbury/Danbury is very interesting.
my top 5 teams for ct open would be:
dhs
sims
Warde
X
BE
staples is solid, they will be good for fciac and class but they don’t have the depth to push at opens I don’t think.
2/3 placers can get you top 5 in the opens this year. Barlow could sneak in there with a few soilid guys.
Over all I think it’s clear that there is the top 4, Dan,sims,warde,X and then a major drop off in team depth throughout the state.
You stated that the Warde Invite was watered down. Were there any good matchups that had any consequence at the state level?