We are just over a week out from the top two teams in the state going head to head. This is my most anticipated dual of the year, and the biggest instate threat Danbury has faced in quite some time. Before I get into a dual breakdown, I want to call out a few things that I’ve been thinking about that lead into the hype!
My Dual breakdown will be posted on January 29th, Happy to hear your thoughts before I put my predictions out there!
1. Both Teams are Battle Tested: Danbury is known for their competitive schedule, I always tend to favor them in "swing" matches due to their schedule. But… Simsbury has put together a really solid schedule this year and their kids have been tested since early December. They have hit Lowell, Sam Cali (NJ), and won the John Gorman that hosted Timberlane, Cumberland and Bristol Eastern.
2. Does Either Team Adjust Their Starting Line Up?: I have been thinking a lot about this and at first I thought Simsbury would make some adjustments to try and “steal” a win. After crunching numbers and going through various dual line ups, I think both teams are best with their traditional line-ups.
3. Like Always, Bonus Points are going to Play a Major Factor: I anticipate bonus points at several weights, the question is… which team stays off their backs? More on this in the break down.
4. The Names You Are Least Familiar With Are Going to Make The Biggest Difference: These are the matches I consider to be the “swing” matches. 152,170,182,220 all come to mind here… bonus at these matches will be a HUGE deciding Factor. Competitive scheduling makes the biggest difference for this part of a team’s roster, kudos to Shook and Silva for not backing down to high level competition.
5. The G.O.A.T vs The Kid: Okay… Coach Silva isn’t a kid, but he is only been at the helm for a few seasons. In my opinion, he has done all the right things to create a winning culture in Simsbury A win in the Hatters Home gym would prove this true. Shook has been in this situation before, we know he will have the team ready to scrap, I am sure the each Hatter will know their “Job”.
6. Timberlane?: That’s right, Timberlane is going to be in town on February 1, as well as Nashoba, MA. One of these teams is going to have to wrestle each other after just finishing up a dual with the Owls. I’m not sure how much this plays into the dual result, but it cannot be left unsaid.
7: January 29th: Simsbury takes on Southington and Danbury has Trumbull 3 days before they square off. Both these duals will tell us more about the “uncertainties” of each team. This is the last result i'd like to see before sharing a prediction.
I’ll post my breakdown on this thread next week, in the meantime… let me here your thoughts!!
Good stuff!Simsbury looked pretty strong last weekend. Call me later we can talk!
One question omitted: How will injuries impact the lineups? Jack did not wrestle last night vs. Coon/Mt. Anthony from what I understand was due to injury. Will this be a repeat against Timberline/Simsbury?
I am uncertain on the Jack's health at this time but one thing to consider is that the dual was locked up for the Hatters by the time the 138 bout had to present to the mat. Danbury wrestled a 120lb backup at the weight, you have to imagine they had more flexibility then that if the dual was undecided at the time.
If Sam Bergin was still at Simsbury I would take them for the win. With 170 being a match that can go either way right now i'm sure Bergin would be able to get bonus points.
Yea unfortuanate for Simsbury, Bergin is up at Shenendehowa High school in upsate NY. I guess you could say the same with the Hatters as well who lost Kovacs to a Prep school transfer.
Another interesting thought that crossed my mind is the timing of this dual in relation to each teams mid-season schedule. Simsbury will be coming off of a long stretch of high level competition. Prior to the dual, their 4 week schedule heading in to it will have went through the Sam Cali, John Gorman, Xavier Tournament, Ridgefield Classic, and a dual with Southington. That’s a pretty tough stretch!
On the other hand, The Hatters varsity line-up was off last weekend and has nothing scheduled this coming weekend. With the exception of a few duals that they were not really pushed in, they really haven’t been pushed since Eastern States on Jan. 10th. Shook is praised for his results as he should be, but the little things he does right (like building a schedule & peaking at the right time) go unnoticed sometimes. He uses his depth in the line-up to rest starters when available, limiting guys to not having to make weight cuts when it’s not needed to win a dual. I’m interested to see if the Hatters come into next week fully healthy and gunning, and if Simsbury comes in with a full head of steam. I expect them to win the Ridgefield Challenge and should be running on an all-time high confidence level.
Final Score: Danbury 35 Simsbury 28
I have been back and forth on a final score due to the fact that I am not sure if either team is going to make adjustments in their line up, and I am just not sure what to expect at a few weights from 152-220.
The one thing I do feel confident in is that 36pts is the number that’s going to win this dual. I think if Simsbury or Danbury can get to 36, it will be enough to lock up the win.
I had 3 scenarios for team score that I landed on many times while crunching numbers. They were:
34-31 Simsbury
35-28 Danbury
39- 23 Danbury
This dual was a tough one for me to gage because these two teams have had little to no common opponents. I’m going off the “eyeball” test for most of this dual and it leaves me with a lot of uncertainty.
I am sure the wrestling at DHS will pure entertainment tomorrow! The Hatters released the match line-ups on their twitter feed last night and it follows: (Wrestling starts at 10am and is being streamed live)
Dual 1: Simsbury vs. Timberlane - Danbury vs. Nashoba
Dual 2: Simsbury vs. Danbury – Timberlane vs. Nashoba
Dual 3: Simsbury vs. Nashoba - Danbury vs. Tmberlane
Live Coverage: https://events.locallive.tv/events/33756?fbclid=IwAR1c1OSHkBTYnwZhEhHx_BDCJr2pMNB5LTrM7jyshChiN5v0IWbbOa3QIOM
Well, that was a letdown with all the hype...51 - 17 Danbury over Simsbury. Danbury won ten matches to Simsbury's four matches. Congratulations to Danbury with a well wrestled dual.
I said this in a post in December (https://www.connwrestling.com/forum/general-discussion/danbury-lineup-looking-unbeatable), Simsbury's lineup doesn't matchup well with Danbury's lineup. Like Timberline did last year, to beat Danbury in a dual, teams need to win the 145 - 195 weight classes, with bonus points included, and limit the damage in the lower weights. Out of these six upper weight classes, Simsbury only won one by decision (160). This match was over after the 195 weight class with Danbury winning by pin in two and a decision in one (170 - pin, 182 - pin, 195 decision).